Analogies are commonly used in an informal way when people make judgmental
forecasts. In general, formalizing the techniques used by experts has been
shown to increase accuracy (e.g., see Chapter 6 in Long-Range Forecasting.)
Structured analogies involves domain experts selecting situations that are
similar to a target situation, describing the similarities and differences, and
providing an overall similarity rating for each similar (analogous) situation.
The outcomes of the analogous situations are then used to forecast the outcome
of the target situation. The analogous situations' outcomes can be weighted to
forecast a target situation decision or to assign probabilities to possible
decisions. The SA method can be used for situations where an unaided expert
would need to think through several rounds of interaction between parties in
conflict in order to make a forecast. To date, however, little research has
been done on the use of SA for this purpose. SA depends on the availability of
situations that are similar to the target. Simulated interaction does not have
this limitation. SA is related to Case-Based Reasoning.